From a statistical point of view, you have three options.
Don't make the second jump and go home with $10,000. Make the second jump, fail, and go home with $5,000. Make the second jump, succeed, and go home with $20,000.
If you make the second jump, you'll earn an average of $12,500. Furthermore, this isn't a null-sum game; if you you fail, you still leave with more than you came with. There's no losing scenario, unless you lose your lunch.
Meanwhile, if you really found bungee jumping so terrifying, you wouldn't have made the first jump -- after one successful jump with an almost-successful break, the second jump surely won't be as scary as the first.
But wouldn't the probability of the second jump succeeding come into play? In this case, the chances of the team actually pulling the task off for a second time are highly unlikely- this show consists almost entirely of people failing at tasks, and this is the first time that I have ever seen anyone succeed at any variation of this particular stunt.
And while I only caught the replay, I do believe that they only managed to hit the thing by pure dumb luck.
The probability does come into play, but as it's an incalculable figure strongly dependent on luck, I look at it as a no-lose situation. Since there's no possible way to LOSE at that point -- only to win with less of a prize -- I'd go ahead and try.
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Don't make the second jump and go home with $10,000.
Make the second jump, fail, and go home with $5,000.
Make the second jump, succeed, and go home with $20,000.
If you make the second jump, you'll earn an average of $12,500. Furthermore, this isn't a null-sum game; if you you fail, you still leave with more than you came with. There's no losing scenario, unless you lose your lunch.
Meanwhile, if you really found bungee jumping so terrifying, you wouldn't have made the first jump -- after one successful jump with an almost-successful break, the second jump surely won't be as scary as the first.
no subject
And while I only caught the replay, I do believe that they only managed to hit the thing by pure dumb luck.
no subject